October’s odds…

Happy October to all!

The 2019 MLB Playoffs have been anything but dull. Now that we have had the chance to gather a small sample size from the majority of the franchises, we can now begin to develop their “playoff identities” (if you will). However, the eye test may get sports gamblers into trouble, more often than not. Don’t get me wrong, it is imperative that a better gathers a portion of his/her intel based upon their own intuition and instincts. Nevertheless, if you think that the odds-makers are basing their game-lines and money-lines based on the ole’ “eye-test” than you are sorely mistaken. Statistics, especially in baseball are very crucial factors that separate teams, determine wins and losses, and ultimately hold the fate of whether you as a better are going to cover or not. For example, here is something that the “eye-test” does not typically pick up on: Did you know that a pitcher traveling from west-coast to east-coast gives up more home-runs than their average appearance? The west to east travel, in this case, is most relevant considering that a human loses sleep hours when traveling in this direction as opposed to east to west. In fact, in a study conducted by Allada, Severini, & Song, they conclude that an eastern home team returning home to compete against a visiting team that was already in the eastern time zone nullifies the home-field-advantage factor completely. From 1992 – 2011, 54% of MLB home teams win in any given game. The fact that you can take that 54% down to 50/50 just based on travel alone may be the difference in making and cashing in our your MLB playoff plays. As for these playoffs are concerned, I would not argue one bit when leaning towards the Nationals of Washington D.C. when the Dodgers of Los Angela’s come to town. A six hour flight combined with a loss of sleep and/or time is a recipe for a big money-line cash in on the Nats! Look for the Nationals to take game three against the Dodgers this Sunday, October 6th.

I would like to touch on a couple more aspect of gambling on MLB and its playoff’s. First, a lot of these teams hit the “long-ball”… A LOT. To piggy-back on that statement, a lot of these teams’ bullpens are shaky to say the least. Hence, pound those OVERS – especially when a particular pitcher has faced a team multiple times throughout the season. Lastly, don’t forget to take a look at those starting pitcher’s WHIP (Walks + Hits per Innings Pitched).This stat is much more indicative of a pitcher’s true identity as opposed to ERA and/or overall record. Those stats are for suckers in the gambling realm.

Here is a list of the current money-lines for World Series winners:

ASTROS   +190

DODGERS   +250

YANKEES   +425

CARDINALS   +800

NATIONALS   +1300

TWINS   +1400

RAYS   +1400

BRAVES   +1500